What if the order of primaries and caucuses were be based on which state’s vote percentage for the winner of the previous election was the closest to the national vote percentage for the winner. Eg. Obama won in 2012 with a national vote of 51.19%. 51.16% of Virginia voted for Obama.
In 2016, Virginia should have voted first.
| State / Victory Rank | 2012 vote | Difference |
| Winner’s % (Obama) | 51.19% | |
| Virginia | 51.16% | 0.03% |
| Colorado | 51.49% | 0.30% |
| Ohio | 50.67% | 0.52% |
| Pennsylvania | 51.97% | 0.78% |
| New Hampshire | 51.98% | 0.79% |
| Iowa | 51.99% | 0.80% |
| Nevada | 52.36% | 1.17% |
| Florida | 50.01% | 1.18% |
| Minnesota | 52.65% | 1.46% |
| Wisconsin | 52.83% | 1.64% |
By this measure, non accounting for any kind of butterfly-effect, Virginia would have been the lead primary in 2012 as well. Here are the top ten for the last six presidential elections. Iowa and New Hampshire are in bold to show that they’d still be early on:
| 2012 | 2008 | 2004 | 2000 | 1996 | 1992 | |
| 1 | Virginia | Virginia | Ohio | New Mexico | New Mexico | New Jersey |
| 2 | Colorado | Colorado | Nevada | New Hampshire | Pennsylvania | Iowa |
| 3 | Ohio | Iowa | Iowa | Wisconsin | New Hampshire | North Carolina |
| 4 | Pennsylvania | Minnesota | New Mexico | Iowa | Wisconsin | Washington |
| 5 | New Hampshire | New Hampshire | Colorado | Florida | Washington | Georgia |
| 6 | Iowa | Ohio | Florida | Oregon | Iowa | Minnesota |
| 7 | Nevada | Pennsylvania | Wisconsin | Pennsylvania | Florida | Delaware |
| 8 | Florida | Florida | New Hampshire | Nevada | Tennessee | Oregon |
| 9 | Minnesota | Nevada | Pennsylvania | Michigan | Missouri | Michigan |
| 10 | Wisconsin | Indiana | Missouri | Ohio | Ohio | Connecticut |
South Carolina, on the other hand, would fall tremendously. Here are the first four states in 2016 and their ranking (out of 50 + DC)
| 2012 | 2008 | 2004 | 2000 | 1996 | 1992 | Average | |
| Iowa | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4.0 |
| New Hampshire | 5 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 8.5 |
| Nevada | 7 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 35 | 15.5 |
| South Carolina | 22 | 24 | 30 | 33 | 33 | 24 | 27.7 |
Proposed Retroactive 2016 Schedule
| Date | Winner percentage | Diff from 51.19% |
| 1/5/2016 | Virginia | 0.03% |
| 1/9/2016 | Colorado | 0.30% |
| 1/12/2016 | Ohio | 0.52% |
| 1/16/2016 | Pennsylvania | 0.78% |
| 1/19/2016 | New Hampshire | 0.79% |
| 1/23/2016 | Iowa | 0.80% |
| 1/26/2016 | Nevada | 1.17% |
| 1/30/2016 | Florida | 1.18% |
| 2/2/2016 | Minnesota | 1.46% |
| 2/6/2016 | Wisconsin | 1.64% |
| 2/9/2016 | New Mexico | 1.80% |
| 2/13/2016 | North Carolina | 2.84% |
| 2/16/2016 | Michigan | 3.02% |
| 2/20/2016 | Oregon | 3.05% |
| 2/23/2016 | Washington | 4.97% |
| 2/27/2016 | Maine | 5.08% |
| 3/1/2016 | Georgia | 5.71% |
| 3/5/2016 | Illinois | 6.41% |
| 3/8/2016 | Arizona | 6.60% |
| 3/12/2016 | Missouri | 6.81% |
| 3/15/2016 | Connecticut | 6.87% |
| 3/19/2016 | South Carolina | 7.10% |
| 3/22/2016 | New Jersey | 7.19% |
| 3/26/2016 | Indiana | 7.26% |
| 3/29/2016 | Mississippi | 7.40% |
| 4/2/2016 | Delaware | 7.42% |
| 4/5/2016 | California | 9.05% |
| 4/9/2016 | Massachusetts | 9.46% |
| 4/12/2016 | Montana | 9.49% |
| 4/16/2016 | Texas | 9.81% |
| 4/19/2016 | Alaska | 10.38% |
| 4/23/2016 | Louisiana | 10.61% |
| 4/26/2016 | Maryland | 10.78% |
| 4/30/2016 | South Dakota | 11.32% |
| 5/3/2016 | Rhode Island | 11.51% |
| 5/7/2016 | Tennessee | 12.11% |
| 5/10/2016 | New York | 12.16% |
| 5/14/2016 | North Dakota | 12.50% |
| 5/17/2016 | Alabama | 12.83% |
| 5/21/2016 | Nebraska | 13.16% |
| 5/24/2016 | Kansas | 13.20% |
| 5/28/2016 | Kentucky | 13.39% |
| 5/31/2016 | Arkansas | 14.31% |
| 6/4/2016 | Vermont | 15.38% |
| 6/7/2016 | West Virginia | 15.65% |
| 6/11/2016 | Oklahoma | 17.96% |
| 6/14/2016 | Idaho | 18.57% |
| 6/18/2016 | Hawaii | 19.36% |
| 6/21/2016 | Wyoming | 23.37% |
| 6/25/2016 | Utah | 26.44% |
| 6/28/2016 | D.C. | 39.72% |
Fun fact: DC is the least-bellweathery of all, ranking 51st in the last six cycles.